 BCREA 2017 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast Vancouver, BC – November 28, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today. Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 10.4 per cent to 91,700 units in 2018, after an expected 8.8 per cent decrease this year. A record 112,209 unit sales were recorded in 2016. The ten-year average for MLS® residential sales in BC is 84,700 units. Strong economic and demographic fundamentals are supporting elevated housing demand. However, a number of factors are expected to temper home sales in the province next year. “Housing demand across the province will face increasing headwinds in 2018," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist."A rising interest rate environment combined with more stringent mortgage stress tests will reduce household purchasing power and erode housing affordability." The 5-year qualifying rate is forecast to rise 20 basis points to 5.15 per cent by Q4 2018, and the new qualification rules for conventional mortgages will erode purchasing power by up to 20 per cent. "Given the rapid rise in home prices over the past few years, the effect of these factors will likely be magnified." The supply of homes for sale is now trending at or near decade lows in most BC regions. The imbalance between supply and demand has been largely responsible for rapidly rising home prices. The combination of weakening consumer demand and a surge in new home completions next year is expected to induce more balanced market conditions, producing less upward pressure on home prices. The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 3.1 per cent to $712,300 this year, and a further 4.6 per cent to $745,300 in 2018. To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast, click here.
For more information, please contact: Cameron Muir Chief Economist Direct: 604.742.2780 Mobile: 778.229.1884 Email: [email protected]BCREA is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients. To demonstrate the profession's commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities, BCREA supports policies that help ensure economic vitality, provide housing opportunities, preserve the environment, protect property owners and build better communities with good schools and safe neighbourhoods. To subscribe to receive other BCREA publications such as this one, to unsubscribe, or to update your email address or current subscription list, click here. BCREA ECONOMICS NOW Canadian Housing Starts - November 8, 2017 Canadian housing starts increased 2 per cent in September to 222,771 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts also increased to 216,770 units SAAR. New home construction in BC jumped 44 per cent on a monthly basis to 53,751 units SAAR and more than doubled on a year-over-year basis. Single detached starts were down 6 per cent from one year ago while multiple unit starts nearly tripled year-over-year. Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC:
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Cameron Muir: Chief Economist 604.742.2780 [email protected] Brendon Ogmundson: Economist 604.742.2796 [email protected] The Housing Market Update video podcast is produced monthly by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: "Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission." BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Copyright© British Columbia Real Estate Association 1420 – 701 Georgia Street West PO Box 10123, Pacific Centre Vancouver, BC V7Y 1C6 Phone 604.683.7702 Fax 604.683.8601 www.bcrea.bc.ca [email protected] To subscribe to receive other BCREA publications such as this one, to unsubscribe, or to update your email address or current subscription list, click here. BCREA ECONOMICS NOW Canadian Employment - November 3, 2017 Canadian employment increased by 35,000 jobs in October while the the national unemployment rate increased 0.1 points to 6.3 per cent. In the twelve months to August, employment in Canada is up 1.7 per cent, or 308,000 jobs. In BC, employment declined for a fourth consecutive month, falling by 6,100 jobs in October. Full-time employment continued to rise, with firms adding 11,000 full-time positions, but total employment was dragged lower by a 17,200 drop in part-time work. Over the past twelve months, the level of employment in BC is up 2.7 per cent. The provincial unemployment rate held steady in October at 4.9 per cent. For inquiries regarding statistical and economics-related news releases, please contact:
Cameron Muir: Chief Economist 604.742.2780 [email protected] Brendon Ogmundson: Economist 604.742.2796 [email protected] The Housing Market Update video podcast is produced monthly by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: "Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission." BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Copyright© British Columbia Real Estate Association 1420 – 701 Georgia Street West PO Box 10123, Pacific Centre Vancouver, BC V7Y 1C6 Phone 604.683.7702 Fax 604.683.8601 www.bcrea.bc.ca [email protected] To subscribe to receive other BCREA publications such as this one, to unsubscribe, or to update your email address or current subscription list, click here. |