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BCrea Economics Mortgage Rate Forecast | March 2023  Click the PDF below to see the full report. 
BCREA 2022 Second Quarter Housing Forecast Vancouver, BC – May 31, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2022 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today. Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 22 per cent from a record high 2021 to 97,240 units this year. In 2023, MLS® residential sales are forecast to fall an additional 12.4 per cent to 85,150 units.  “After a strong first quarter, BC markets are now adjusting to a much different interest rate environment,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “With mortgage rates surpassing 4 per cent for the first time in over a decade, the housing market over the next two years may have very little resemblance to the housing market of the past year.” On the supply side, we have begun to see active listings move off of record lows and re-sale inventories trend back toward balance. However, because inventories reached such low levels over the past year, the journey back to balance may take up to a year or more in some areas. As markets adjust to the new interest rate landscape, we anticipate that prices may be somewhat volatile but will ultimately flatten out through 2023. For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.
For more information, please contact: Brendon Ogmundson | Chief Economist | Direct: 604.742.2796 | Mobile: 604.505.6793 | Email: [email protected] Ryan McLaughlin | Economist | Direct: 778.657.5960 | Mobile: 604.366.6511 | Email: [email protected] Housing Forecast is published twice a year by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: "Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission." BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Additional economics information is available here on BCREA's website.  For more information, please contact:
Brendon Ogmundson | Chief Economist | Direct: 604.742.2769 | Mobile: 604.505.6793 Email: [email protected] The Housing Market Update video is produced monthly by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS®may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: "Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission." BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Additional economics information is available here on BCREA's website. Click here to view the June 2021 Mortgage Rate Forecast. Highlights:
 For more information, please contact:
Brendon Ogmundson | Chief Economist 604.742.2796 | [email protected] Ryan McLaughlin | Economist 778.657.5960 | [email protected] Mortgage Rate Forecast is published quarterly by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: "Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission." BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Additional economics information is available here on BCREA's website.
For inquiries regarding statistical and economics-related news releases,
please contact: Brendon Ogmundson | Chief Economist Direct: 604.742.2796 | Mobile: 604.505.6793 [email protected] The Housing Market Update video is produced monthly by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: "Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission." BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. For inquiries regarding statistical and economics-related news releases,
please contact: Brendon Ogmundson | Chief Economist Direct: 604.742.2796 | Mobile: 604.505.6793 [email protected] The Housing Market Update video webcast is produced monthly by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: "Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission." BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. BCREA 2020 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast  Vancouver, BC – November 4, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2020 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today. Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 16.9 per cent to 90,450 units this year, after recording 77,350 residential sales in 2019. MLS®residential sales are forecast to increase 9.7 per cent to 99,240 units in 2021. “The housing market had a record fall season and prices are rapidly rising as pent-up demand floods into an under-supplied market,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “As that pent-up demand fades, sales will likely come down from their current record pace, albeit to a still robust level of activity as record-low mortgage rates and a recovering economy continue to drive sales.” On the supply side, active listings remain low due to hesitation on the part of sellers to list during the pandemic. Some additional supply may come online following the end of mortgage deferral programs, but given the tightness of market conditions, that supply is unlikely to be disruptive. We are forecasting the provincial MLS® average price to finish the year up 9.9 per cent and to increase a further 2.6 per cent in 2021. For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.
For more information, please contact: Brendon Ogmundson |Chief Economist 604.742.2796 | [email protected] Kellie Fong | Economist 778.357.0831 | [email protected] “The Unusual World of Pandemic Economics” –Why BC’s Housing Market Remains Strong Despite COVID-199/9/2020
 Vancouver, BC – Septemeber 9, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association’s (BCREA) latest Market Intelligence report, The Unusual World of Pandemic Economics, points to uneven job losses across sectors, an increase in many households’ rate of savings, swift government aid, a tighter-than-ever housing supply and low interest rates as the drivers behind BC’s recent housing market highs. “The COVID-19 recession has battered many sectors of the BC economy. However, looking at recent data in the housing market, it would be difficult to tell there was a recession at all,” says BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “In a typical recession, we would see falling demand and rising supply, but this recession is anything but typical.” Previous BCREA forecasts anticipated housing prices would return to the pre-COVID-19 baseline in early 2021. However, a surge of pent-up demand into an undersupplied market has prices at pre-COVID-19 levels well ahead of schedule. “Pandemic economics are proving to be very unusual. Many of the trends we are seeing are without precedent and significant uncertainty remains, but we are cautiously optimistic that this housing recovery will continue,” notes Ogmundson. To read the full report, click here. For the PDF of this news release click here. Shaheed Devji | Marketing Communications Specialist
604.757.7260 | [email protected] Market Intelligence is published by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: "Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission." BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Additional economics information is available here on BCREA's website. BCREA 2020 Second Quarter Housing Forecast Vancouver, BC – June 10, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2020 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today. Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 21 per cent to approximately 61,000 units this year, after recording 77,347 residential sales in 2019. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 45.3 per cent to 88,500 units in 2021. “The bright outlook for 2020 home sales has been upended by the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting recession,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, as the economy “re-opens” and measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 are gradually eased, we expect home sales will start to rebound, aided by record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand.” The impact of the current pandemic and associated recession on prices is largely determined by the reaction of supply. Given the unusual nature of COVID-19, the supply of listings for sale has declined for at least the first few months of the pandemic. A muted rise in for-sale inventory may translate to home prices remaining relatively firm in 2020. We are forecasting the provincial MLS® average price to finish the year up 1.8 per cent and to increase a further 5.6 per cent in 2021. For more information, please contact:
Brendon Ogmundson | Chief Economist 604.742.2796 | [email protected] Kellie Fong | Economist 778.357.0831 | [email protected] BCREA is the professional association for more than 23,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients. To demonstrate the profession's commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities, BCREA supports policies that help ensure economic vitality, provide housing opportunities, preserve the environment, protect property owners and build better communities with good schools and safe neighbourhoods.  Vancouver, BC – May 13, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 3,284 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April 2020, a decline of 50.8 per cent from April 2019. The average MLS®residential price in BC was $737,834, a 7.8 per cent increase from $684,430 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in March was $2.4 billion, a 46.9 per cent decrease over 2019. "We expected to see a sharp drop in sales for April as we confronted the COVID-19 pandemic,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, buyers and sellers are adapting to a new normal, and activity should pick up as the economy gradually re-opens.” While home sales were down by more than half compared to this time last year, the supply of homes for sale, which normally rises through the spring, was down close to 10 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis and down 23.7 per cent year-over-year. That slide in total active listings means that prices remained firm despite the sharp fall in sales. Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 9.6 per cent to $15.3 billion, compared with the same period in 2019. Residential unit sales were down 1.7 per cent to 20,164 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 11.6 per cent to $758,614.  For more information, please contact: Brendon Ogmundson | Chief Economist Direct: 604.742.2769 | Mobile: 778.505.6793 | Email: [email protected] BCREA is the professional association for more than 23,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.
To demonstrate the profession's commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities, BCREA supports policies that help ensure economic vitality, provide housing opportunities, preserve the environment, protect property owners and build better communities with good schools and safe neighbourhoods. |
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